Market regime
Risk-on meter
0 = risk-off, 100 = risk-on. Defined in advance (not fitted) from five regime dimensions.
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Regime dashboard
Each dimension is labelled from the daily close (UTC). The bar under each card is the last 180 days of that dimension (colours explained under Regime history). "Stays" is how often this state was still in place 30 days later since 2022.
How long does it last, and what came next? (2022 → now)
For each dimension: time in the current state, how long that state usually lasted, the odds it was still the same state 7/30 days later, and TOTAL's median 30-day return after days in this state. Windows overlap, so treat the counts as optimistic.
Bitcoin cycle
Where Bitcoin is in its ~4-year halving cycle, against every cycle since 2012. Full history (the chart-range bar doesn't apply here). Tops and bottoms are found from daily closes. Source: Coin Metrics community data, refreshed twice a day.
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Each cycle's price divided by its price on halving day (log scale). The shaded band is where the last three tops landed (525–546 days after the halving). Gains shrink every cycle: 92× → 30× → 7.9× → 1.9× to the top.
Drawdown from each cycle's top, aligned on the top. The shaded band is where past bear markets bottomed (364–406 days after the top). Past bear lows: −77% to −85%.
BTC since 2010 (log scale) with halvings, cycle tops (red) and bottoms (green). Realized price = the average price every coin last moved at (on-chain cost basis). Past bear markets bottomed 25–44% below it and at or below the 200-week average (2015 −9%, 2018 +0.5%, 2022 −34%). This cycle's low so far (Jun 30, 2026) held 10% above realized price and 6% under the 200-week average.
Pi Cycle Top: the 111-day average crossing above 2× the 350-day average. It fired within days of the 2013, 2017 and Apr 2021 tops, but not at the Nov 2021 top or the Oct 2025 top.
MVRV Z-score: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ the market cap's standard deviation to date. Above 7 marked the 2013 (10.7) and 2017 (10.1) tops; peaks keep falling — 7.2 in Feb 2021 (not at the Nov 2021 top) and 3.4 in Dec 2024 — so a fixed threshold stopped firing. Below 0 marked the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms (−0.6, −0.5, −0.4); this cycle's low so far reached only +0.2.
Mayer Multiple: price ÷ 200-day average. Above 2.4 = historically stretched, below 0.8 = historically cheap. Cycle peaks: 8.3 (2013), 3.8 (2017), 2.8 (2021), 1.9 (2024) — shrinking like every other valuation gauge here.
Puell Multiple: daily new-coin issuance in USD ÷ its 365-day average (miner income). Above 4 marked the 2013 (10.5) and 2017 (6.6) tops; it peaked at only 3.5 in 2021 and 2.4 in 2024. Below 0.5 has lined up with miner capitulation near bottoms.
2-year average ×1 and ×5 (log scale). Price above 5× the 2-year average marked the 2013 and 2017 tops; it came within 2% in Feb 2021 and reached only half of it this cycle. Below the 2-year average has been a historically good accumulation zone.
Read this with care: there have only been three full cycles. Recent research ("Bitcoin Runs on a Clock") finds the halving clock (tops 525–546 days after the halving) held through 2025, while every classic top indicator on this page went quiet at the Oct 2025 top (ETF demand changed the market). The bottom window comes from past cycles, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Crypto market cap — TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3
TradingView-style market-cap indices (stablecoins and tokenized stocks/commodities excluded), with 50/200-day averages. Background = the index's trend regime: green above both averages, red below both, grey mixed.
Dominance
BTC and ETH share of the crypto market. Falling BTC dominance = money rotating into alts.
Alt rotation
TOTAL3 ÷ TOTAL — the share of the market held by alts outside BTC and ETH.
Market breadth
How many coins are taking part in the move — measured across the top 100 crypto perps by 30-day volume (stablecoins and tokenized stocks excluded).
De-risk watch
Is the market running hot or cold, and which of the de-risk (cut exposure) and re-risk (add exposure) signals we tested have fired. Read the note before using these.
How to read this — our backtest
We pre-registered these signals and tested them on 2022–25, then on 2025–26 out of sample, against random de-risk windows as a control.
No individual signal beat chance. "Early" de-risk signals typically fire ~2 weeks before a local top while the market keeps rising — they mean late-stage, not top today.
What did carry information is the hot state itself: holding half the usual exposure while the market is hot (and the trend is up) cut the worst drawdown from −25% to −20% in 2025–26
with slightly better returns (an exploratory result that still needs forward testing). Staying long only while TOTAL is above its 50-day average held up in both periods.
Use this panel as context next to the trend, not as a trigger.
Token trend regimes
Each WhaleMaps token vs its own 50/200-day averages — the same rule as the market trend. Click a token to open its chart with the regime overlay.
Derivatives positioning
Funding rates by venue, annualised (+ = longs pay shorts). Aggregate open interest and BTC/ETH long/short ratios.
Liquidation clusters
WhaleMaps predicted liquidation map for 13 major tokens.
Predicted liquidation $ summed into 0.25% price bands within ±10% of spot: long liquidations (red) sit below price, short liquidations (green) above. Big nearby clusters often act as price magnets or accelerants when reached. Full detail on the Liq Map.
Sectors
Crypto sectors (Binance tags), equal-weight returns.
Volatility & sentiment
Implied volatility (Deribit DVOL), the Crypto Fear & Greed index, and total stablecoin supply (dry powder).
Regime history
Every dimension, day by day (use the chart range at the top). Hover for the state on any date. Green = supportive for crypto, grey = neutral, red = headwind / caution — on every row. The key below says what that means for each row; the right edge shows today's state.
What followed each current state
Forward returns after days in the same state as today, 2022 → now. Overlapping windows, so the effective sample is smaller than n. History, not a forecast.
TradingView + WhaleMaps
Top: the full TradingView chart — every ticker, all its indicators and drawing tools. TradingView does not let an embedded chart load outside data, so our series cannot go inside it. Below: the same ticker on TradingView's own charting engine (Lightweight Charts) with our breadth, positioning, sentiment and regime series added to the same chart as overlays and panes — scroll and zoom it like any TradingView chart.